Don't Show President Trump This Chart
18 minutes ago
Once recovery is gained, however, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in resources.Despite these dire forecasts of doom, the USD has rallied in the wake of the GFC and gold prices are roughly flat from that period. That thesis of secular runaway inflation turned out to be wrong.
Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.
|Trifecta Bottom Model|
South African markets were thrown into turmoil after President Jacob Zuma fired the finance minister, strengthening his grip on power amid differences over government spending.As the chart below shows, South African assets are indeed tanking. The top panel shows the South African ETF (EZA), which is priced in USD. The bottom panel shows the relative performance of the South African Rand relative to the Aussie Dollar, which is another commodity currency.
The rand weakened for a sixth day in the longest streak of losses since November 2013 and bond prices dropped the most on record, pushing yields to their highest levels since July 2008. The country’s bank stocks tumbled the most in more than 14 years following the dismissal late on Wednesday of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene. The cost of insuring South African debt against default rose to the highest in more than 6 1/2 years.
Location:Please come by if you are in the area.
First Floor Conference Room
101 Elliott Avenue West
Seattle, WA 98119
Date and time: December 3, 2015 at 7pm
Cost: Free for Members and Non-Members.
While job openings have skyrocketed, both actual hires and quits stalled, and this month both turned negative YoY for the first time since the 1-month 2012 pause.He continued:
This is an important indication that we are past mid-cycle.
I have also recently started paying more attention to the Fed's Labor Market Conditions Index (blue in the graph below), which appears to be a good leading indicator for YoY payroll growth (red):
While there were some huzzahs! that there were upward revisions to the last 6 months in this index, the above graph shows that, in context, it is not pointing to strong payrolls growth in the months ahead. Rather, I expect each such report to be lower than the conquerable report one year ago. This simply reinforeces the argument that we are past mid-cycle (as the YoY% growth in jobs generally peak near mid-cycle).
When you’re the Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch you think you’re the starting pitcher for the New York Yankees. You have it all figured out. I realized when I got to Gluskin Sheff how much I didn’t know.Then came the shock:
The whole life of a portfolio manager, their brain, is one giant distribution curve of outcomes. I’ve learned more in the past six years at Gluskin Sheff on the buy side, as a strategist and economist, than the previous twenty-two combined [in various sell side roles]. Because I figured out how to produce a forecast that’s meaningful for somebody who manages money for a living.