We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.
The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"
My inner trader uses the trading component of the Trend Model to look for changes in the direction of the main Trend Model signal. A bullish Trend Model signal that gets less bullish is a trading "sell" signal. Conversely, a bearish Trend Model signal that gets less bearish is a trading "buy" signal. The history of actual out-of-sample (not backtested) signals of the trading model are shown by the arrows in the chart below. Past trading of the trading model has shown turnover rates of about 200% per month.
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Risk-on*
- Trading model: Bearish*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers will also receive email notices of any changes in my trading portfolio.
A growth revival
Sometime you don`t get the perfect signal. I had been watching for signs of an oversold extreme before covering my short positions and buying, but none of my tactical three bottom spotting models had flashed a buy signal yet (see Three bottom spotting techniques for traders).
Some got close. As this chart of the VIX Index shows, the VIX never managed a close above its upper Bollinger Band, but it traded above its upper BB several times.
Nevertheless, a combination of macro, fundamental, and sentiment models have turned sufficiently bullish for me to call an end to the current bout of minor stock market weakness. At a minimum, downside risk is likely to be low at current levels.
The full post can be found at our new site here.